Cryptocurrency Predictions 2022 and Beyond

Cryptocurrency Predictions 2022 and Beyond

How Some Millennials Got Rich In 2021

Take A Fun Journey Into The Crypto Future With George Gammon

Cryptocurrency Predictions For 2022 And Beyond!! (Shocking Intel Revealed)

55,663 viewsOct 4, 2021 

George Gammon 

334K subscribers

 ✅ Check out the next Rebel Capitalist Live!! https:/www.rebelcapitalistlive.com LYN ALDEN and I discuss portfolio that will HELP YOU profit from DOLLAR losing reserve currency status, click this link to check it out!! 🔥 https://www.georgegammon.com/portfolio For more content that’ll help you build wealth and thrive in a world of out of control central banks and big governments check out the videos below! 👇 🔴 Subscribe for more free YouTube tips: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpvy… Do you wanna see another video as incredible as this? Watch “Will Fed CBDC Trigger Massive Stagflation? (Shocking Answer Revealed!)”: https://youtu.be/mG4gkT6IKco Watch “Global Elites Plan To Take Control Of YOUR Money! (Revealed)”: https://youtu.be/VgTQQQamF4o Watch “IMF Plan To Replace Bitcoin/Gold/Dollar With Digital SDR!! (Shocking Info Revealed)”: https://youtu.be/WEiqxqlZ_QA Watch “Banks Face Mysterious SLR Crisis!! (Hidden Dangers Revealed)”: https://youtu.be/wr1eDcwB4iM Stay tuned every week for new content!

*****************************************************************************

Cryptocurrency Predictions 2022 and Beyond

  

VISIT OUR OTHER SITES:

Check Out Our Crypto Privacy Site: CryptoGrizz.com

Check Out Our Crypto Trading Site: CryptoGrizzTrader.com

Check Out Our Low Cap Altcoin Site: CryptoGrizzAltcoins.com

Check Out Our Prepper Site: PrepperGrizz.com

Check Out Our Global Crypto Survival Site: GlobalCryptoSurvival.com

FULL VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

00:00shocking predictions for cryptocurrency00:03going into 202200:06and beyond i’m gonna explain this to you00:09in three00:10simple fast steps step number one00:14people are getting00:17rich00:19and we’re not talking about rich some of00:21these people are getting to be00:23millionaires even billionaires in00:27cryptocurrency but let’s think through00:30the numbers the devils and the details00:33as they always say00:351400:36of americans now own cryptocurrency00:39their combined net worth has gone up00:43almost 200:45trillion00:46dollars since the beginning of 2022.00:50i’ve got a chart right here going all00:52the way back to march 2020 the beginning00:54of the cervasis sickness all the way to00:56today september 2021.01:00on the left we started zero01:02trillion dollars if we go up to two01:05trillion01:06the market cap for cryptocurrency that’s01:10what this chart is illustrating starts01:13off at01:15144 billion dollars this was not01:1910 years ago01:21this was basically one year ago or a01:23little over a year ago at the beginning01:26of the cerveza sickness01:28it goes pretty straight for a01:31cryptocurrency chart and then before01:33january it goes completely parabolic and01:37peaks out over01:39two trillion dollars and then it comes01:41crashing down but it’s rebounded to a01:44point where it’s still right around two01:47trillion dollars so if we take the two01:50trillion dollars we subtract where it01:52came from at 144 that’s why i’m saying01:55the net worth or the increase in net01:59worth for these 1402:02of individuals who own cryptocurrency02:05has gone up by almost02:072 trillion02:09a staggering amount but to understand02:12what may happen to the price of02:15cryptocurrency and cryptocurrencies02:18themselves moving into the future02:21we have to understand02:23who02:24owns crypto today02:26the demographics and why those02:29individuals own so much crypto why have02:32they moved over into that space what has02:35prompted them to make those decisions02:38first of all the demographics the main02:40group that owns cryptocurrencies male02:43ages 25 to 34.02:46they’re making on average about 25 to 3502:4900002:51editor going throughout the chart we can02:52see this is 25 to 35 000 pounds this02:55study was done in the uk so in dollar02:58terms might be a little bit more but you03:00get the general idea we know one thing03:03is for sure in the trailing 12 months03:06they absolutely03:08crushed it03:10they knocked the cover off the ball a03:13lot of these crypto currencies are up 203:153 4 5 10 100 times03:19who knows but at the end of the day03:20demographics are just numbers and03:23statistics i think it’s far better to03:26get your mind around who actually owns03:29cryptocurrency through a visual03:32representation so i summoned03:35all of my artistic ability and created03:38this guy right here his name is crypto03:42caleb03:44let me describe03:45all of crypto caleb’s characteristics03:50first of all of course he’s kind of a03:53hipster guy he’s got his really clean03:55haircut with the part right on the side03:58and of course he has a beard because04:00caleb has so little testosterone that04:03he’s got to over compensate for it by04:06having that facial hair and he has04:09tattoos showing what a badass he is he’s04:12got his el salvador04:14shirt on and of course he’s holding a04:16sign that says follow me on insta while04:20he’s holding his soy04:22cafe04:23latte that he just got at starbucks he04:25has a dog because every male in that age04:28group has to have a dog and take it with04:31them everywhere regardless of whether04:33they’re going to a restaurant04:35in an airplane or how wildly04:38inappropriate it may be he’s wearing04:40these pants that04:42kind of aren’t pants they’re more like a04:45modern day version of knickers i have no04:47idea why men actually choose to wear04:51these pants it would be sort of like a a04:54prison sentence for me if i did04:56something wrong it would be my04:57punishment and all of them have these04:59badass off-road vans or always mercedes05:04i think it’s some sort of transit van05:06they’ve got the ladder on the back and05:08these racks where you can put all your05:10luggage it’s a proper bear grylls05:13type of off-road adventure vehicle they05:17like to think that they can bug out at05:21any time but the only thing they’re05:22really doing is kind of bugging out of05:25their parents basement so now we know05:27what the average crypto05:29investor looks like let’s dive into the05:33psychology what has prompted them what05:35has driven them to make these decisions05:39well it starts off like it usually does05:42with the fed in your drunk05:44insolvent uncle sam they have been05:47sending crypto caleb stemi checks for05:50the last year his income has skyrocketed05:54from all the05:56free money that he is getting from the05:58government but more importantly the fed06:02has kept real rates06:05negative for a long time now i know that06:09if you buy into the cpi there’s been06:10several times throughout the past few06:12decades where real interest rates have06:15been positive but if you actually look06:18at how much prices have gone up i think06:22everyone would come to the same06:23conclusion06:24that real rates of interest are usually06:28negative that means that you’re losing06:31purchasing power by holding cash or by06:35holding a bond that is only paying you06:38let’s say two or three percent it’s06:42really important that you06:44everyone watching this video right now06:47understands how that impacts society as06:52a whole we might not consciously always06:55think about it but subconsciously06:58we know that if we keep our money in the07:01bank07:02or in bonds we’re going to lose07:05purchasing power over the long run so07:09what this does is it pushes us the07:12average investor the average joe and07:15jane and07:17crypto caleb07:19further and further out the risk curve07:22they’ve got to take more and more risk07:26to make sure that their savings is not07:28only keeping up with inflation but07:31hopefully accelerating at a faster pace07:34but it’s not just stemis and negative07:37real rates pushing people further out07:39the risk curve it’s also that there’s07:42fewer opportunities out there for those07:45young people who are graduating college07:48or those middle aged millennials will07:51call them the government has created all07:54of these economic distortions they’ve07:57created malinvestment and a07:59misallocation of resources which has08:02incentivized businesses to speculate08:06on financial assets instead of08:09reinvesting back into their business08:12growing their business trying to produce08:13more goods and services by hiring more08:17people and creating jobs because of the08:21actions of the fed and the government08:23our entire economy has been08:26financialized and what that means for08:29crypto caleb is fewer08:32good job opportunities and the central08:35planners have also08:37disincentivized caleb to become an08:39entrepreneur himself because of all the08:42additional regulations and most likely08:45taxes going to the moon in the future we08:48hear the administration and the08:50mainstream media all the time talking08:53about how bad and evil the capitalists08:57and the entrepreneurs the producers and08:59job creators are in our society and we09:02really need to bring them down a few09:04notches09:05for the greater good09:07so why on earth would caleb want to sign09:10up for that09:11it’s far easier to take your stemi09:13checks and just put them on doji coin09:17because at the end of the day09:19it is yolo time you only09:23live09:24once but this meme is just a09:27representation that illustrates09:30how much the fed has pushed the average09:34investor out the risk curve if i had a09:37picture of jerome powell right here he09:40would be holding a sign saying take more09:43risk to explore this yellow attitude09:47that has been driven09:49by the fed and the government creating09:51negative real rates and inflation let’s09:55cut to the internet and a comedian named09:59remy you guys are really gonna get a10:01kick out of this one10:04coming up bad news for savers as even10:06those with high interest savings10:08accounts are seeing their money10:09disappear thanks to inflation but first10:12we’ll detail every possible thing you10:14could die from he’s a rational investor10:17dividend i just uh saved some numbers10:19paycheck just like all his ancestors him10:22looking for high yields that’s never the10:24case he’s seeking six percent return10:26slow and steady wins the race when he10:28checks his accounts just to see what10:30they’re fielding it’s like driving in10:32maryland ain’t nobody yielding what is10:34he to do he shouldn’t be in a drought so10:37he visits his advisor just to sort it10:39all out inflation’s higher than your10:41bond rate that’s what i was fearing so10:43your savings account is slowly10:45disappearing and your cds are pointless10:48that’s not very funny what would you10:50like me to do put it all in dog money10:53dog money dog money dog money dog money10:57i’m trading it in for dog11:03[Music]11:13moves i ain’t gonna be a pun i sold my11:16ira and bought an nft a one all in all11:19doge i dish them out like a tommy gun11:21you think i was statehood the way i’m11:23passing on watching tons i feel like11:25matt gates you know what i mean assuring11:28everybody it’s above 18. it’s a modern11:31day gold rush the price is a boom like11:33reggie white versus all this i’m headed11:35straight to the moon11:37my broker’s calling you know that it’s11:39on11:40buy dog money don’t stop till it’s dawn11:44step number two11:45now i’m going to reveal my first11:50prediction11:51are you ready for it11:54your 401k11:57is going to turn into11:59a 401k12:019.12:02[Laughter]12:04sorry about that after that last video i12:07could not resist that little joke okay12:09let’s start with these charts first of12:11all the unemployment rate goes back to12:142008 all the way to 202112:18starts around four percent and then12:19skyrockets up to about 12 percent during12:22the gfc then gradually comes back down12:25to an all-time low or very close to an12:28all-time low 2020 before the cerveza12:31sickness under 412:32but then it goes completely parabolic up12:35to 15 or 16 percent and keep in mind12:39this is the u312:41unemployment number that’s the headline12:43number you always see on cnbc and12:45bloomberg which i think understates the12:49real rate of employment dramatically12:52we’ll save that for another video so the12:55way the fed in the government measures12:57u3 it has come back down in july it was13:015.4 percent but notice there’s quite a13:05delta between the 5.4 percent13:08we have now13:10and the under 413:13we had13:14prior to the cerveza sickness so the fed13:16is looking at this13:18and they have this mandate for13:21unemployment so they want to get this13:23number back down to under four percent13:26and then there’s also13:28politicians like aoc13:31elizabeth warren bernie sanders that13:34think jerome powell is nowhere near13:37dovish enough13:40oh yes that’s right that 120 billion13:43dollars the qe13:45isn’t near enough for those politicians13:48who want more and more13:51central planning they want to see the13:54fed bring the unemployment rate down to13:57maybe 113:59or 0.5 percent regardless14:02of the rate of inflation but i’m sure14:05most of you by now have heard jerome14:07powell always come out and say that14:09inflation is14:11transitory in fact in that14:14presentation that they gave to congress14:17the other day with janet yellen or14:19whatever they want to call it i i can’t14:21stand to pay any attention to those14:22things but in their14:24testimony we’ll call it uh both he and14:27yelen said that yes inflation is14:30transitory and their argument really14:32revolves around something called the14:35phillips curve14:37so we start here on the bottom three14:40percent four percent goes all the way to14:42seven percent this is the unemployment14:45rate14:46over here14:48the vertical line14:50starts at two so it goes up to seven14:51percent this is the rate of inflation14:54so basically what the phillips curve14:57says14:58is that as the rate of unemployment15:02gets higher15:04the rate of inflation gets lower15:07so there’s an inverse correlation15:10between the unemployment rate15:13and inflation said another way if15:15unemployment goes down15:18then inflation will go up so the fed is15:22looking at the unemployment rate being15:25higher much higher than it was at the15:28end of 201915:30and they’re looking at the phillips15:31curve and saying well there’s no way15:34that we have sustained inflation because15:37the rate of unemployment isn’t low15:40enough and for most of you who are15:42really paying attention right now you’re15:44probably scratching your head and saying15:45wait a minute george15:47wasn’t the phillips curve really15:49debunked in the 1970s15:52and i would argue that was debunked15:55pretty much in every single decade but15:57believe it or not the 900 phd’s at the16:01fed still use the phillips curve to make16:06decisions and to predict16:08whether or not inflation is transitory16:11or permanent but then the next question16:15becomes okay we know16:17the phillips curve is broken16:20but has cryptocurrency16:23broken the phillips curve16:26even more16:28and this is a fascinating thought16:30experiment to dive into this deeper16:33let’s go right to the internet and a16:35blog post from one of my good buddies16:38who actually used to work16:40at the fed his name is joseph wang16:45alright so joseph’s blog is called fed16:48guy it’s at16:49fedguy.com i’d strongly suggest16:53checking it out every one of his blog16:54posts16:55are awesome and thought provoking and16:59extremely17:00interesting to say the least so let’s17:03start by going over his recent or most17:05recent blog post wealth17:07side effects17:09and this is where he is arguing that17:12because the stock market and17:14cryptocurrency has gone up to such a17:17significant degree17:18since the beginning of 2020 that it is17:22having an impact on the labor force17:24participation rate and therefore the17:28unemployment rate so a lot of people are17:30choosing to not go back to work because17:33they’ve increased their wealth so much17:37by17:38we’ll call it quote-unquote investing or17:40speculating in cryptocurrency and the17:43stock market why on earth should they go17:46back to work and make 15 an hour when17:49they just made 30 00017:51in the last two months in doji coin as17:55an example he starts by pointing out17:57this chart of the estimated increase in18:00median wealth from 2019 to q2 202118:04and it is true18:06that the people at the top of the18:09economic18:10ladder18:11really saw most of the gains their net18:14worth increased by an average of 55318:1800018:20wow that is18:23really incredible but then he also18:25points out the surge in asset prices has18:29been so extreme that even less wealthy18:33cohorts saw meaningful gains since18:372019. and we can just go back to the18:40chart and see people even18:42in the18:4325 to 50 percentile their net worth18:48increased by 1818:5000018:52that is a significant amount assuming18:55you’re making18:56let’s say thirty or forty thousand18:58dollars a year so joseph’s hypothesis19:00which i would completely agree with is19:03because we’ve seen such extreme wealth19:05gains this has dropped the labor force19:08participation rate19:10significantly because people are just19:12choosing not to go back to work and19:14what’s odd is we have this dynamic in19:17the labor market where job openings are19:21at all time highs so the fed is sitting19:25back kind of scratching their head none19:27of this makes sense to them because if19:29job openings are at all time highs that19:32would indicate that the labor market is19:35very tight and therefore the19:36unemployment rate should be a lot lower19:40than the 5.4 percent that we saw on the19:44chart going back to the whiteboard now19:46let’s go ahead and start connecting some19:48dots with cryptocurrencies19:51so this section of the blog post is19:53called dark money cryptocurrencies are a19:56two trillion dollar asset class absent20:00from flow of funds data because they20:03exist on decentralized ledgers outside20:07of national reporting systems20:10crypto as an asset class was negligible20:13in 201920:15but may have grown to levels that are20:17impactful on a macroeconomic level like20:20dark matter it is exerting influence20:24without being seen now we go over some20:27more statistics that really put things20:29into perspective it’s called fast money20:32the scale and speed of the rise in20:35household wealth is simply unprecedented20:37the roughly 40 trillion20:40increase in household wealth over the20:42past two years is real money that can be20:45spent on goods and services20:48and he points out here correctly just20:50not all at once20:51[Laughter]20:53don’t sell all at once so the price will20:55come crashing down20:57this has obvious implications for21:00consumption and inflation but also on21:02the public’s urgency to seek employment21:05we were talking about earlier21:06stopping the flow of unemployment21:08payments may be less impactful and i21:11think that definitely has a lot to do21:13with it as well but i’ve done several21:15videos on that so we’ll stick to the21:17topic of this wealth creation21:20cryptocurrency and demotivating people21:23to go back to work21:25so stopping the flow of unemployment21:27payments may be less impactful in21:29encouraging employment when the stock of21:31wealth has grown tremendously21:34and this chart is really jaw dropping21:38its households and non-profit21:40organizations net worth level so we can21:43see it dip down which is what you would21:45expect in the gfc21:47and since then it’s gone straight up21:50into the right but look at what happened21:53after the cerveza sickness21:55it not only goes up into the right it21:57goes pretty much straight up it’s a buzz22:00lightyear chart to infinity and beyond22:04to infinity22:06and beyond just to reiterate over the22:09last two years household wealth has gone22:12up by approximately22:144022:15trillion dollars the fed appears22:18confused by the labor market there are22:20many signals of the labor shortage even22:22though the unemployment rate is also22:24elevated the fed is holding rates low on22:27the belief that the economy is far from22:29maximum employment even though inflation22:33is high this goes back to the phillips22:35curve that we were talking about22:37but if the wealth effect has22:39structurally changed the labor market22:42then the fed is viewing the world22:44through an outdated model22:48so let’s think about this for a moment22:51what happens is people still have the22:53same amount of purchasing power or if or22:56more purchasing power for that matter22:58but yet they’re not going back to work23:00producing goods and services and in the23:03mind of the fed if people are unemployed23:05then they should see a decrease in23:08demand and that ties into the inflation23:11rate so if demand goes up even though23:13the unemployment rate stays persistently23:17high the fed is going to see that and23:19assume that inflation is transitory23:22because they’re going to assume that23:23they actually have less purchasing power23:25because they’re not taking into23:27consideration this wealth effect that23:30joseph wang is pointing out extremely23:33well so therefore it may take much23:36higher wages to reach the pre-pandemic23:39unemployment rate the fed may be23:41inadvertently running the economy much23:45hotter23:46than they realize23:48so in order to get people to go back to23:50work when they’re making 30 00023:53every two months trading cryptocurrency23:55wages are going to have to go from 15 an23:58hour let’s say up to 30 or 50 or 7524:02dollars an hour and then that will24:05exacerbate the problem of inflation that24:09the fed24:10thinks doesn’t exist24:13so my first prediction is the fed is24:16going to continue to use the phillips24:18curve to make policy decisions moving24:22forward and because cryptocurrency has24:26created so much wealth at least paper24:29wealth on the balance sheet of those 1424:33of americans who have less of an24:35incentive to go back to work the24:38unemployment rate24:40as measured by the government and the24:41fed is going to be persistently high24:45therefore the fed is always going to24:47come back to the conclusion that24:49inflation is transitory regardless of24:53how many years it goes up at six percent24:58eight percent 1025:0012 who knows how high it will go and25:04we’ve seen this movie before it’s not25:07the first time the fed has inaccurately25:12come to this conclusion i’d like to take25:14you back to the early 1970s at the time25:17the fed chair was a gentleman by the25:19name of arthur burns and just like25:22jerome powell he was coming out and25:24making the claim that inflation is25:27transitory but we all know what happened25:29throughout the rest of the 1970s25:32arthur byrne was proven wrong over and25:36over and over again and i think jerome25:39powell will also be proven wrong in this25:44decade and i know a lot of you right now25:46are saying okay george i understand the25:49stuff with arthur burns and the25:52inflation being transitory or permanent25:55but that’s not really a specific25:58prediction about cryptocurrency or the26:00price of cryptocurrency26:03but don’t you worry26:05my friend26:07we are going to connect all the dots26:10in step number three coming up right now26:14step number three26:15now it’s time to reveal26:18my big26:20cryptocurrency26:22predictions but before i do26:25i can give you a prediction that is 10026:29guaranteed26:31to come true26:32and that is mr joseph wang will be26:36speaking at the next rebel capitalist26:39live event26:41in houston if you haven’t checked out26:43rebel capitalist live definitely do so26:47as soon26:48as this video is done we’ll put a link26:50in the description below but it’s just26:53rebelcapitalistlive.com26:56you can see all the speakers that will26:58be in houston january 7th through the27:019th guys like ron paul chris cole g27:05edward griffin gals like lynn alden27:08lynette zhang and like i said mr joseph27:12wang the fed guy27:14himself but back to the cryptocurrency27:18predictions in step number one27:20we saw that crypto caleb has gotten27:24rich to the tune of two trillion dollars27:30just in the last year then in step27:32number two we saw that all of these27:35gains have most likely decreased his27:38willingness to go back to work therefore27:41the unemployment rate stays higher than27:44it otherwise would and the fed thinks27:47that inflation is transitory so they27:50continue to put the pedal on the metal27:52don’t worry about inflation this means27:55that it most likely will run hot into27:57the future and let me be very clear when27:59i’m talking about inflation i’m28:01specifically referring to the stuff28:04the goods and services you buy28:07daily so i set up this chart just to get28:10a visual of the main concepts i’m trying28:14to communicate28:15first28:16on the left it goes from 0 up to 1628:20this is the rate of increase28:22so right in the middle this red line28:24let’s just assume this is the rate of28:27inflation going into the future and i’m28:30not saying this is a prediction in and28:32of itself we’re just using this as a28:34thought experiment so inflation going28:37from eight percent to 10 1228:401528:42well stocks and real estate28:45let’s say they are also going up in28:48nominal terms but28:50they’re only going up at maybe four five28:53six seven percent per year28:56which for most americans the average joe28:59and jean they look at that and they29:00think they’re getting rich29:02but then they start to do the math29:05and they’re like wait a minute here yes29:08my house is going up at five or six29:10percent per year but my grocery bill is29:14going up by 30 percent per year29:18so they realize it dawns on them that29:21the stocks in real estate are going up29:24at a lower rate or less than29:27inflation29:28but then they look at crypto29:30currency and they see that it is going29:33up at a rate that vastly exceeds29:37inflation29:38so they come to the conclusion logically29:41that the only way they can stay ahead of29:44the inflation curve29:46because remember we’ve got the fed and29:49your drunk insolvent uncle sam that is29:52pushing the average joe to take more and29:56more risk because of these negative real30:00rates so the average joe says to himself30:03well i’ve only got one choice if i want30:06to actually increase my purchasing power30:09or at least30:11just stay up with the rate of inflation30:14i’ve got to move all of this capital30:17from stocks and real estate into30:21cryptocurrency and for those of you who30:23are cryptocurrency fans you may be30:25saying well that’s fantastic news30:28because that means the price30:30is going to go to the moon but30:32unfortunately there is a big30:35problem to dive into this deeper let’s30:38go right to the internet and check out30:40this study from the bis the bank of30:44international30:46settlements30:48this is a report titled early warning30:51indicators they call e-w-i’s30:55of banking crises30:58let’s scroll down here and we can get to31:00some of their charts31:02evolution of ewi that’s early warning31:06indicator31:07variables around past31:10banking31:11crises these charts are a little31:14difficult to decipher so let me walk you31:16through them this zero indicates when31:19there was a banking crisis and this31:21black vertical line and it shows31:24different metrics they used to try to31:26predict when this banking crisis would31:30come to fruition and not only predict31:33when but also the probabilities of it31:35actually panning out so the first metric31:38they use is credit to gdp31:41so the overall credit in the economy the31:43public and private debt31:45relative to the country’s gdp let’s just31:48use the middle red solid line because31:51that’s the median so what this is saying31:54is it’s going up at eight percent above31:58the trend line the historic trend line32:01it’s not saying that it’s going up at32:03eight percent nominally that’s just32:06eight percent above the trend so if the32:09trend let’s say was two percent32:12and now it goes up to eight percent32:14then the delta would be six percent and32:17that’s what this solid red line would32:20indicate32:21another thing interesting about this32:22credit to gdp32:24is that when it gets to a peak that’s32:28usually32:29when you see the banking crisis32:31so it happens kind of in real time32:35contrast that the data represented in32:37this property price gap and we’re going32:39to focus on that solid red line again32:42and this represents the same thing it’s32:45just the delta between the historic32:47trend line and the current rate of price32:50appreciation or the gap between the32:53prices and the income level so the price32:57to income ratio difference between what33:00they’ve experienced let’s say over the33:02past33:0320 quarters and the historic trend33:06that’s the important metric33:08but you can see here it peaks out33:10usually about eight quarters prior33:13to an actual banking crisis so this33:16would be more of a leading indicator and33:19they also have metrics like dsr which is33:22debt service ratio i’m not going to get33:25too into the weeds on those other33:27metrics because i want to focus on33:29credit to gdp and also property price33:33gap33:34what this bis study shows us is these33:37are the most predictive indicators when33:40you’re trying to assess the33:42probabilities of a banking crisis33:46so i’d imagine a lot of you are asking33:49the question right now okay george if a33:52country gets over its skis so to speak33:55or they breach this level which would33:58indicate the no bueno zone34:03the bis might not use that terminology34:06but they caught probably the danger zone34:08what is the probability that this34:10country has a banking crisis34:14and from what i’ve read in this report34:16the probability can be as high as 5034:21depending on what metrics that country34:24actually triggers but the metrics we34:26just went over are so powerful34:29that they usually supersede the rest so34:32as an example if the property price gap34:35or price to income ratio in a specific34:37country gets too extreme34:39even if that country hasn’t triggered34:42any of the other red flags it could34:45still make the probability of a banking34:47crisis go up to that 50 percent number34:51and what i would argue is in a country34:53that has been so financialized like the34:56united states not only could a property34:59bubble imploding create a banking crisis35:02but i think you could see the exact same35:04thing happen if the stock market were to35:06go down by 50 percent just sit back and35:10ask yourself the question35:12what would the economy look like if the35:14stock market went down35:16by 50 percent35:18and stayed down by 50 for the next35:21decade something similar to what we saw35:24in japan in the 1990s35:28i think most of you would come to the35:29conclusion and rightfully so that that35:32would create an economic crisis35:34in the united states to the likes which35:37we may have never seen it may even35:39exceed what we saw during the great35:42depression so let’s think this through35:46using the example35:47of these hot air balloons that i think35:50gives us a great visual representation35:53of the overall concept so we’ve all seen35:56it on a sunday morning those hot air35:58balloons are going up over the sky and36:02the clouds blue sky it’s a really cool36:04thing and they’re all these bright36:06colors and at the bottom of those hot36:09air balloons you see this little woven36:11basket and that’s where the people are36:14kind of hanging out there and floating36:16around36:19in the past when we have a proper36:22fundamentally sound economy36:25i see it as though it’s this hot air36:27balloon that’s controlling or leading36:31this basket36:32that is following it around36:34so in a healthy economy that really36:37revolves around producing goods and36:41services36:42true wealth36:44the real economy would be that hot air36:46balloon36:47and the financial economy like the stock36:50market or the housing market would be36:52the basket36:53underneath that hot air balloon36:56so wherever the balloon goes in other36:58words wherever the real economy goes37:00however well it does37:02the basket will do the same the stock37:05market and the housing market but what37:08has happened as a result of everything37:10that we talked about in step number one37:14is we’ve completely reversed the roles37:17so now we go into this completely37:20distorted type of economy that’s been37:23totally37:24financialized37:26so the balloon has gone from the real37:29economy to the financial economy37:33and it’s the one that has power or37:36control of the direction of everything37:39else and now the basket is the real37:42economy so wherever the financial37:44economy goes37:46so goes the real economy and that’s why37:48the fed has had to come in so many times37:51and bail out the banking system and the37:54banksters themselves because they know37:57that if the financial economy collapses38:00the stock market or the real estate38:02market the real economy will collapse as38:06well but here’s where it gets38:09interesting if we see this dynamic play38:13out in the future38:14because the fed has to let inflation run38:18so hot before they reduce the size of38:20their balance sheet or they increase38:22interest rates we see the capital flows38:25going from stocks in real estate that38:28have a negative38:30appreciation rate or negative yield38:32compared to the rate of inflation we see38:34the capital flows go from stocks and38:36real estate into cryptocurrency38:40then because we financialized the38:42economy so much38:44we could transition38:46into a brand new type of hot air balloon38:50where the price of38:52cryptocurrency38:54is the actual balloon and now the real38:57economy is tied to the price39:00of doji coin39:02and let’s go back to that thought39:04experiment we did during the reading if39:06the stock market goes down by 50 percent39:09remember most of you would agree that39:11that would collapse the entire real39:13economy same thing for the housing39:16market but now if all of the capital and39:19the assets on the balance sheets of39:21americans is tied up in cryptocurrency39:24the same thing would be true that at the39:27price of cryptocurrency goes down by 5039:3060 70 percent then this in and of itself39:35would collapse the real economy39:38regardless of what was happening to the39:40stock market and the real estate market39:42and to make this even more bizarre if39:45the economy started to go down as a39:48result of the price of crypto collapsing39:51then the fed39:52would have to come in and save the day39:55because they have these mandates such as39:58the unemployment rate well if the40:00unemployment rate in the real economy40:01let’s say goes up to 15 percent40:04because crypto40:06falls out of bed and goes down by 5040:08percent then the fed would be left with40:11a decision40:13they would have to come in and literally40:16prop up the price of crypto40:19just like they have done quantitative40:21easing40:22to prop up the price40:24of the stock market and the housing40:26market but step back for a moment and40:29think about this paradox40:32let’s take out the word crypto and just40:34replace it with the word bitcoin40:37of all the cryptocurrencies this one has40:40the highest probability of competing and40:43maybe taking down the u.s dollar so the40:47fed would be put into a position where40:50they have to prop up the actual40:52competitor to the currency that gives40:56them power40:57in the first place so what are my big41:00crypto predictions moving into 2022 and41:04beyond well the fed is definitely going41:07to continue to push41:10people out the risk curve by maintaining41:13a negative real interest rate and i41:17think the negative real rates we see now41:20could actually increase moving forward41:23and this will incentivize people to take41:26money out of the stock market in real41:29estate and move it into41:31cryptocurrency so as long as we see this41:35dynamic at play41:37there are no certainties only41:39probabilities but i think there’s a41:41significant probability that the market41:44cap for cryptocurrency continues to grow41:48now which ones go up and down41:51i have no idea i’ll let you draw your41:54own conclusions and i want to be very41:56clear i’m not saying that this is a41:58reason to speculate in42:01currencies i would never ever buy42:03something just42:05because i thought the price was going up42:07that’s just pure gambling what i’m doing42:10is going through a thought experiment so42:12you can better understand the risks we42:15have42:16to the real economy and one more thing42:18i’d like to point out this dynamic that42:21we’re talking about with cryptocurrency42:23taking all the inflows could continue42:27into the future as long as there’s not42:30another asset class that comes up right42:33alongside it where the gains are even42:36more than what we’ve seen in42:38cryptocurrency can anyone say42:41nfts42:43for more content that’ll help you build42:46wealth and thrive in world of out of42:48control central banks42:50big governments check out this playlist42:53right here and i will see you42:55on the next video English (auto-generated)